Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/01

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Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Chicago Bears/Detroit Lions Over 52 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This might be the highest total on the board for Week 17, but there are still plenty of points written all over this game. Maybe the biggest key is getting Jared Goff and the Lions back into the friendly confines of Ford Field. That’s where Lions games tend to erupt offensively, averaging 59.4 points per game on the season and going 7-1 over this total.

This also looks like a spot for continuation of regression for the Detroit defense, which had been playing unsustainably well against the run until last week. Now they face the most run-heavy offense in the league, with one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in Justin Fields. He was the biggest factor in the previous meeting totaling 61 points, and putting two teams who are a combined 20-10 to the over indoors on turf should create another shootout today.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots -2.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Last week I talked about how difficult it would be for the Patriots to bounce back after their ridiculous loss in Las Vegas. Well, they didn’t figure anything out until after halftime, but this team does not seem to have quit on the season. They shouldn’t, as a win today puts them right back into position for the playoffs, and I think they get it done in what might be a fairly ugly game.

I’m ignoring all the historical trends on Teddy Bridgewater being an excellent road underdog throughout his career, as he has not looked the same in limited action this season. And when that Dolphins offense isn’t explosive, this is not a team that can find other ways to win. Bill Belichick can though, and he owes rookie head coach Mike McDaniel for a Week 1 loss. Count on the Patriots to get it done here and stay alive in the playoff chase.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders Team Total Under 16 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:05 PM CT on FOX

I’ll admit that the NFL is the strangest league around, where chaos reigns and the unexpected is the norm. The Las Vegas Raiders are likely a fractured team this week as they’re out of the playoff hunt and dealing with the turmoil around Derek Carr. So if they come out of a game where Jarrett Stidham faced the best defense in football and produced more than two touchdowns of offense, I’ll have to tip my cap to the weirdness of the NFL and rip up the ticket. But since that seems like too crazy a scenario, I’m taking this isolated total to go under based on pure logic.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1003-852 ATS (+86.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.