Ireland Lotto: Mathematician gives tip to Irish players to reduce odds of having to share the jackpot
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Lotto players are no more likely to win the jackpot this Saturday despite the €19million prize rolling over for 12 draws, a mathematician revealed.
Eamonn Toland, founder of themathstutor.ie, said the odds of a lucky punter striking gold aren't any greater despite the recent rollovers.
Nobody has matched all six numbers and the bonus ball since June 5 and the jackpot has been capped at € €19,060,800 since October 2.
The odds of winning the National Lottery jackpot increased from 1 in 8.1 million to 1 in 10.7 million when the number of balls in the draw increased from 45 to 47 in 2015.
Mr Toland said the largest Lotto jackpot in history could continue to roll over for weeks or months.
Speaking to the Irish Daily Star, he said: "No-one can predict rollovers because it's a random process. It wouldn't be a lottery otherwise.
"We don't know how long this is going to go on for. Just because it rolled over 12 times, it's no more likely to be won this week.
"The only factor that could influence that is if there are more people playing. The more people playing, the more likely it is to be won.
"But just because 12 draws have gone by, it doesn't mean it will be won this time.
"The machine has no memory and it's a random process. It could go on for a long time or it could be this week."
Mr Toland, who studied Physics, Maths and Computers in NUI Galway and Queen’s University Belfast before founding the online support system for Junior Cycle and Leaving Cert maths students, said the increase in the number of balls in the Lotto draws led to the recent rollovers.
He said: "Eight million to almost 11 million is an increase of more than a quarter. Even though there's only two more balls, the maths behind it means there is a massive difference.
"It makes it much harder to win. It's the biggest factor in the rollovers and it's done deliberately.
"There is more interest in it and that's a reason for putting more numbers into the machine.
"They (the National Lottery) want it to roll over. They can't control the probability but make it more likely to have big jackpots and big rollovers by putting more numbers in the machine.
"That's what they've done and now that there is a big jackpot, there is more interest and more people buying tickets.
"That means more revenue for them. That's the general idea."
Mr Toland said there is nothing that players can do to increase their odds of winning the €19million jackpot - but said they can decrease their chances of sharing the jackpot if they do strike gold by picking random numbers.
He said: "The more lines you buy, the more likely it is you are going to win. But that's not necessarily great advice because it is a poor bet.
"There is no particular combination that is any likely than another. Any random selection is just as likely as any other selection to come out.
"People tend to go with patterns but that's a bad idea. People pick birthdays or special numbers and they're just as likely to come out as any other number but the problem is that if lots of people pick those numbers, they are more likely to end up sharing the jackpot.
"If players base their selection on birthdays, they are picking from 1 to 31 and they are more likely to end up sharing.
"Ultimately, you want to avoid sharing the jackpot and the way to do that is to avoid patterns.
"If 500 people picked the same numbers, instead of €19million, you would get around €38,000.
"If you're going to beat the odds of almost one in 11 million, you'd want to get more than €38,000 for it.
"To pick randomly, go for Quick Pick and let the machine pick random numbers. You could end up with the same numbers as someone else but it's much less likely."
A spokesperson for the National Lottery said 19 people became millionaires with the same odds last year.
The spokesperson said: "The current record-breaking Lotto jackpot has been on an unprecedented roll since Wednesday June 9 and is currently at the highest amount ever seen in the history of the game in Ireland at €19,060,800.
"The odds of winning the Lotto jackpot have not changed since 2015.
"For context, in the same Lotto game in 2020, 19 new Lotto millionaires were made which included eleven Lotto jackpot winners who shared in excess of €60 million in jackpot prizes alone.
"Since Saturday October 2, the jackpot has been capped at the €19.06 million amount which means that no additional funds will be added to the jackpot until it is won.
"The additional funds that would have usually gone to the jackpot instead flow down to the next prize tier at which there is a winner.
"Due to the capped Lotto jackpot, a total of 175 players have benefitted from the boosted prize funds at lower tiers.
"The current Lotto jackpot roll sequence alone has now raised in excess of €50 million for the Good Causes Fund which is transferred to the Exchequer for distribution to community groups, individuals and projects through the Good Causes Fund.
